{"id":266,"date":"2022-02-27T17:28:46","date_gmt":"2022-02-27T17:28:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/?page_id=266"},"modified":"2022-03-07T09:00:35","modified_gmt":"2022-03-07T09:00:35","slug":"preismodellierung","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/price-modelling\/","title":{"rendered":"Price Modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"266\" class=\"elementor elementor-266\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-4ffa16d1 elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-stretched elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-items-middle\" data-id=\"4ffa16d1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;stretch_section&quot;:&quot;section-stretched&quot;,&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5c4fd25e\" data-id=\"5c4fd25e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d7ee8af elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"d7ee8af\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-175f351e elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"175f351e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Price Modeling<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e03a8d6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"e03a8d6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-75162762 elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"75162762\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Future price and volume development<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-25d9a003 elementor-section-stretched elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"25d9a003\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;stretch_section&quot;:&quot;section-stretched&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5d56136b\" data-id=\"5d56136b\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-670e3238 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"670e3238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Data on future price and volume development, like future prices for power, gas, coal and oil, with a maximum of reliability is an essential factor of success for the optimization of complex generation and procurement portfolios in the energy industry.<\/p><figure class=\"w-richtext-figure-type-image w-richtext-align-floatright\" data-rt-type=\"image\" data-rt-align=\"floatright\"><div><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.website-files.com\/5c6fd02e6978d217448b286f\/5c700e888128cb551e246835_csm_scenarios_d3653bd1df.jpeg\" \/><\/div><\/figure><p>Every commodity price has its own specific characteristics with seasonal, weekly, and daily patterns, its periodically changing volatilities, and its mean  reversion properties which must be precisely modeled. Commodity prices often considerably correlate with each other on short-term, long-term and medium-term time scales, both within one market area and on different markets. All these properties can be mapped into a mathematical (stochastic) price model.<\/p><h3>Parameter estimation<\/h3><ul><li>Stochastic processes often contain different parameters, such as volatility, mean reversion or correlations to other processes<\/li><li>To adapt a stochastic process on the real developments, it is crucial to estimate the parameters of the stochastic process as well as possible<\/li><li>We use mathematical estimation algorithms based on the maximum likelihood method<\/li><\/ul><h3>Scenario generation<\/h3><ul><li>Using the estimated parameters of the selected stochastic processes Monte Carlo scenarios are generated<\/li><li>They can be used to generate Monte Carlo scenarios, which are, for example, used for risk assessment of open spot positions or schedules<\/li><li>These price scenarios are generated risk neutral with respect to the price forward curve, e.g. to the HPFC of the EEX spot price<\/li><\/ul><h3>Integration<\/h3><ul><li>Components of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/dt-energysuite\/\" data-rt-link-type=\"external\">DT.Analytics<\/a>\u00a0for the estimation of stochastic parameters and processes can be integrated into the optimization models of the DT.Energy Suite<\/li><li>Alternatively, DT.Analytics is available as a stand-alone modeling and analysis tool<\/li><\/ul><p>More detailed information about our modeling can be found in the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/dtrees.com\/fileadmin\/images\/Bilder\/Startseite\/DT_Analytics_engl._12_RZ.pdf\" data-rt-link-type=\"external\">brochure<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6ab59cc6 elementor-section-stretched elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6ab59cc6\" data-element_type=\"section\" 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10.1h-46.6c-5.5 0-9.7-2.9-12.9-8.7l-66-120.3c2.3-4.1 36.8-64.9 103.4-182.3 3.3-5.8 7.4-8.7 12.5-8.7h46.9c5.7-.1 8.8 4.7 6 10z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-403134e3\" data-id=\"403134e3\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-51824dfc elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"51824dfc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>\u00a9 Decision Trees GmbH &#8211; All rights reserved<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b7f613d\" data-id=\"b7f613d\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76206e90 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"76206e90\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/elementor\/thumbs\/dtrees-logo-footer-pl51bf5vfu006xzzno2n1xbkgrajw9zfjywj3vbdj6.png\" title=\"dtrees-logo-footer\" alt=\"dtrees-logo-footer\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Preismodellierung zuk\u00fcnftige Preis- und Volumenentwicklungen Ein wesentlicher Erfolgsfaktor f\u00fcr die Optimierung komplexer energiewirtschaftlicher Erzeugungs- und Beschaffungsportfolios sind m\u00f6glichst zuverl\u00e4ssige Daten \u00fcber zuk\u00fcnftige Preis- und Volumenentwicklungen, wie z.B. Strom-, Gas-, Kohle- und \u00d6lpreis. Jeder Commodity-Preis hat seine ganz spezifische Charakteristik mit saisonalen, w\u00f6chentlichen und t\u00e4glichen Mustern, zeitlich wechselnden \u00a0Volatilit\u00e4ten und Reversionseigenschaften, die pr\u00e4zise modelliert werden m\u00fcssen. [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":6,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-266","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","wpbf-post"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/266\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":707,"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/266\/revisions\/707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dev.dtrees.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}